Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.42% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%) , while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.