Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 46.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.69% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 25.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%) , while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.