Primeira Liga Gameweek 32
May 3, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio Pina Manique

Casa Pia vs Tondela - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions
Last game
Apr 27, 2026 8.15pm
Gil Vicente 2 - 1 Casa Pia
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Gaizka Larrazabal

Tondela

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 3.30pm
Tondela 0 - 2 Nacional
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Maranhão

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Casa Pia win with a probability of 37.88%. A win for Tondela has a probability of 34.05% and a draw has a probability of 28.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Tondela win is 0-1 (10.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.9%).

Result

Casa Pia 37.88% (-0.03)
Draw 28.07%
Tondela 34.05% (+0.03)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.4% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 69.23% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 30.77% (-0.06)
Over 2.5 43.66% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 56.38%
Over 3.5 22.79%
Under 3.5 77.21%
Over 4.5 11.81% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 88.19% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Casa Pia 28.02%
Draw 44.34%
Tondela 27.64%

Team To Score First

Casa Pia 42.9%
No Goal 9.57%
Tondela 47.53%

Corners

Over 8 40.48%
Equal 8 11.83%
Under 8 47.69%
Over 9 29.97%
Equal 9 10.51%
Under 9 59.52%
Over 10.5 21.34%
Under 10.5 78.67%

Casa Pia Goals

Over 1.5 34.3% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 65.7% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 12.81%
Under 2.5 87.19%
Over 3.5 3.97%
Under 3.5 96.03%

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5 65.76% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 34.24% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 31.42% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 68.58% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 11.28% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 88.72% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 3.36% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 96.64% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Casa Pia 37.88%
Draw 28.08%
Tondela 34.06%
Casa Pia
1-0 @ 11.08% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 7.95% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.88% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.35% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.83% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 1.89%
Other @ 3.9% (-0.02)
Total : 37.88%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.9%
0-0 @ 9.57%
2-2 @ 4.77% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.07% (+0.02)
Total : 28.08%
Tondela
0-1 @ 10.14%
1-2 @ 7.71% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.77%
1-3 @ 2.87%
0-3 @ 2.39% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.89%
Other @ 3.29% (+0.02)
Total : 34.06%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Dec 21, 2025 6.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Tiago Miguel Silva Manso 23' yellowcard
  • Joao Afonso 53' yellowcard
  • Ivan Cavaleiro 58' goal
  • yellowcard Renato Nhaga 31'
  • goal Gaizka Larrazabal 62'
  • yellowcard Yassin Oukili 66'
  • goal Renato Nhaga 70'
  • yellowcard Andre Geraldes 82'
  • yellowcard Andre Geraldes 83'