Preview: Casa Pia vs Tondela - prediction, team news, lineups

Separated by one place and four points near the foot of the Primeira Liga table, Casa Pia welcome Tondela to Rio Maior for Sunday’s survival six-pointer.

With three games left to play, the 16th-placed hosts sit two points adrift of outright safety and four above this weekend’s visitors in 17th, setting up an intriguing contest that could prove decisive in the relegation battle.

Match preview

The appointment of Alvaro Pacheco in early January initially appeared to spark an upturn for Casa Pia, whose only defeat in the 54-year-old’s first five matches in charge (W2, D2) came away to defending champions Sporting Lisbon.

However, that resilience has since faded into a nine-match winless run, with the Geese losing five times during that stretch, including Monday’s 2-1 defeat in Barcelos, where Cassiano’s 45th-minute penalty equaliser ultimately proved in vain, as Murilo de Souza completed his brace after the interval to hand Gil Vicente maximum points.

That result saw Casa Pia suffer back-to-back Primeira Liga defeats following a 1-0 setback to Braga four days earlier, and Os Gansos are now at risk of losing three straight league matches for the first time this season.

The hosts’ recent downturn can be linked to issues in the final third, having drawn a blank in five of their last nine outings, while managing to find the net no more than once in each of the other four — a drop-off from the previous four games, where they scored at least twice in three.

Casa Pia have also struggled defensively, conceding 55 goals this season — only Arouca (60) and AVS (65) have shipped more — leaving Pacheco with concerns at both ends ahead of Sunday’s crucial clash.

A return to Estadio Pina Manique should provide some encouragement, however, as Os Gansos have lost only one of their last nine league matches at the ground, though just two of those games ended in victory, accounting for all their home wins in the Primeira Liga this season (D8, L5).

Like the hosts, Tondela arrive on a lengthy winless streak, having gone eight matches without victory (D4, L4), despite a managerial change, with Goncalo Feio overseeing four of those fixtures since taking charge on March 29.

Fero has overseen 2-0 defeats to Porto and Nacional either side of 2-2 draws with Gil Vicente and Sporting, and the Portuguese manager will have taken great encouragement from his side’s spirited comeback to rescue a point at Estadio Jose Alvalade on Wednesday.

Trailing 2-0 late on after conceding through Luis Suarez and a Joao Silva own goal, Tondela struck twice in stoppage time through Salvador Blopa, who inadvertently turned the ball into his own net, and a Cicero effort to avoid a third successive defeat and keep their hopes of survival alive.

Victory here would further boost the Gold and Greens’ chances of avoiding an immediate return to the second tier, though just three wins from 15 away league games this season (D3, L9) offer limited cause for optimism.

History also provides little comfort for the visitors, who lost the only previous meeting between the sides, going down 2-1 in December’s reverse fixture at Estadio Joao Cardoso.

Casa Pia Primeira Liga form:

Tondela Primeira Liga form:

Team News

Casa Pia are expected to remain without former Southampton defender Jose Fonte, who has missed the last five matches since being forced off injured in March.

Winter signing Pedro Rosas will also miss out through suspension after accumulating five yellow cards across Liga 2 and the Primeira Liga this season, following his booking last time out.

Cassiano’s strike against Gil Vicente ended a six-match drought, and the veteran forward will now aim to score in successive league appearances for only the second time this term.

Meanwhile, Tondela are sweating over the fitness of Helder Tavares, who was forced off during the second half of the midweek clash at Sporting, making him a major doubt.

Pedro Maranhao remains the club’s leading scorer with six league goals, though the winger has failed to net in each of his last seven appearances and will hope to end that barren run.

Meanwhile, midfielder Cicero is also pushing for a starting place after his influential display from the bench last time out.

Casa Pia possible starting lineup:

Sequeira; Goulart, Geraldes, Sousa; Larrazabal, Mohamed, Brito, Rosas; Livolant, Cassiano, Marques

Tondela possible starting lineup:

Bernardo; Manso, A Silva, Marques, Conceicao; Hodge, Rodriguez, Felix; Maranhao, R Lopes, Ouattara

We say: Casa Pia 1-1 Tondela

Victory for Casa Pia, combined with favourable results elsewhere, would lift them into 15th, while success for Tondela could also significantly strengthen their survival hopes.

However, with both teams enduring long winless runs and neither showing much cutting edge in attack, a tense and low-scoring draw looks the most likely outcome.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.