Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 34

May 1, 2021 at 8pm UK

Goodison Park

Everton
1 - 2
Aston Villa

Calvert-Lewin (19')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Watkins (13'), El Ghazi (80')
Luiz (41'), El Ghazi (90')

Reaction

Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti pictured on March 1, 2021

Carlo Ancelotti cannot explain Everton's poor home record

Away from home Everton have taken 23 points out of the last 30 available.

May 2, 09:22

Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates scoring their first goal against Everton in the Premier League on May 1, 2021

Dean Smith hails "outstanding" Ollie Watkins after Everton win

Ollie Watkins set Aston Villa on their way to a first win at Goodison Park since 2008.

May 1, 21:45

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Everton	Draw	Aston Villa
38.16%	25.43%	36.41%

Both teams to score 56.22%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.36%

47.64%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.17%

69.83%

Everton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.46%

24.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.98%

59.02%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.5%

25.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.65%

60.35%

Score Analysis

Everton 38.16%

Aston Villa 36.41%

Draw 25.42%

Everton	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 8.79% 2-1 @ 8.44% 2-0 @ 6.18% 3-1 @ 3.95% 3-0 @ 2.89% 3-2 @ 2.7% 4-1 @ 1.39% 4-0 @ 1.02% 4-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.86% Total : 38.16%	1-1 @ 12.01% 0-0 @ 6.26% 2-2 @ 5.77% 3-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.42%	0-1 @ 8.55% 1-2 @ 8.21% 0-2 @ 5.84% 1-3 @ 3.74% 0-3 @ 2.66% 2-3 @ 2.63% 1-4 @ 1.28% 0-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.6% Total : 36.41%