Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 28

Mar 14, 2021 at 4.30pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
2 - 1
Spurs

Odegaard (44'), Lacazette (64' pen.)
Xhaka (82')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lamela (33')
Reguilon (40'), Sanchez (63'), Lamela (69')
Lamela (76')

Reaction

Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang pictured on September 19, 2020

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 'angry at Mikel Arteta for North London derby axe'

Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was left furious with boss Mikel Arteta after his North London derby axe, according to a report.

Mar 15, 18:28

Arsenal's Bukayo Saka pictured on January 2, 2021

Arsenal's Bukayo Saka suffers hamstring injury

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta admits that winger Bukayo Saka had to be forced off against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday due to a suspected hamstring injury.

Mar 14, 23:58

Erik Lamela scores a rabona for Tottenham Hotspur against Arsenal in the Premier League on March 14, 2021

A look at Erik Lamela's eventful North London derby

Tottenham substitute Erik Lamela made a big impression on the north London derby but Arsenal ran out 2-1 winners.

Mar 14, 19:09

Arsenal's Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang celebrates with the match ball after scoring a hat-trick on February 14, 2021

Arsenal's Aubameyang dropped from North London derby for disciplinary reasons

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta confirms that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was dropped for the North London derby due to disciplinary reasons.

Mar 14, 19:05

Tottenham Hotspur's Son Heung-min goes off injured against Arsenal in the Premier League on March 14, 2021

Son Heung-min suffers hamstring injury in North London derby

Tottenham Hotspur attacker Son Heung-min goes off injured with a suspected hamstring problem in Sunday's 2-1 North London derby defeat to Arsenal.

Mar 14, 18:54

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Tottenham Hotspur
32.93%	24.49%	42.58%

Both teams to score 58.78%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56%

44%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.61%

66.39%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.19%

25.81%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.23%

60.77%

Tottenham Hotspur Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.23%

20.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.58%

53.42%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 32.93%

Tottenham Hotspur 42.58%

Draw 24.49%

Arsenal	Draw	Tottenham Hotspur
2-1 @ 7.73% 1-0 @ 7.26% 2-0 @ 4.92% 3-1 @ 3.49% 3-2 @ 2.74% 3-0 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.18% 4-2 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.47% Total : 32.93%	1-1 @ 11.41% 2-2 @ 6.07% 0-0 @ 5.36% 3-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.49%	1-2 @ 8.97% 0-1 @ 8.43% 0-2 @ 6.62% 1-3 @ 4.7% 0-3 @ 3.47% 2-3 @ 3.18% 1-4 @ 1.85% 0-4 @ 1.36% 2-4 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.76% Total : 42.58%