Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 40.46% | 28.7% | 30.84% |
| Both teams to score 44.94% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.62% | 61.37% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.72% | 81.27% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.27% | 29.73% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.21% | 65.79% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.95% | 36.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.17% | 72.82% |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 12.99% 2-1 @ 8.05% 2-0 @ 7.89% 3-1 @ 3.25% 3-0 @ 3.19% 3-2 @ 1.66% 4-1 @ 0.99% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.48% Total : 40.45% | 1-1 @ 13.26% 0-0 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 4.11% Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.69% | 0-1 @ 10.93% 1-2 @ 6.77% 0-2 @ 5.58% 1-3 @ 2.3% 0-3 @ 1.9% 2-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 1.97% Total : 30.84% |