La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 21

Dec 22, 2021 at 8.30pm UK

San Mames

Athletic Bilbao
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Sancet (10')
Vencedor (43'), Garcia (61')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Benzema (4', 7')
Junior (42'), Camavinga (62')

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 15.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.71%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 1-0 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
15.26%	21.04%	63.7%

Both teams to score 48.71%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.98%

47.03%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.74%

69.27%

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.69%

43.31%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.45%

79.56%

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.92%

14.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.31%

41.7%

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 15.26%

Real Madrid 63.69%

Draw 21.03%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 5.11% 2-1 @ 4.19% 2-0 @ 2.14% 3-1 @ 1.17% 3-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 1.53% Total : 15.26%	1-1 @ 10% 0-0 @ 6.1% 2-2 @ 4.1% Other @ 0.83% Total : 21.03%	0-1 @ 11.95% 0-2 @ 11.71% 1-2 @ 9.81% 0-3 @ 7.66% 1-3 @ 6.41% 0-4 @ 3.75% 1-4 @ 3.14% 2-3 @ 2.68% 0-5 @ 1.47% 2-4 @ 1.31% 1-5 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.57% Total : 63.69%