Copa do Brasil | First Round

Feb 27, 2025 at 10pm UK

Estadio Governador Antonio Mariz

Sousa
1 - 1
Bragantino

Augusto de Almeida Ribeiro (53')
Augusto de Almeida Ribeiro (27'), de Carlo Fuso (81'), Uesles (90+10')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kaway Dias Pereira (90+10' og.)
Mosquera (82')

Bragantino win 5-4 on penalties

Coverage of the Copa do Brasil First Round clash between Sousa and Bragantino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sousa

Last Game: Bragantino 3-0 Sousa
Tuesday, May 21 at 11.30pm in Copa do Brasil

Bragantino

All competitions

Last Game: Bragantino 5-1 Criciuma
Sunday, December 8 at 7pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 49.61%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Sousa had a probability of 23.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.21%) and 1-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Sousa win it was 1-0 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.

Result
Sousa	Draw	Bragantino
23.11% ( -0.15)	27.28% ( 0.05)	49.61% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 43.6% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.5% (

-0.28)

60.5% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.39% (

-0.21)

80.61% (

0.21)

Sousa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.81% (

-0.3)

42.19% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.4% (

-0.26)

78.6% (

0.27)

Bragantino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.42% (

-0.08)

24.58% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.93% (

-0.11)

59.07% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Sousa 23.11%

Bragantino 49.61%

Draw 27.27%

Sousa	Draw	Bragantino
1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.42% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.86% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.12% Total : 23.11%	1-1 @ 12.55% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.55% Total : 27.27%	0-1 @ 14.55% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 10.21% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.78% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.68% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.24% Total : 49.61%