Championship Gameweek 3
Watford
Aug 24, 2024 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Vicarage Road
Derby
  • Vakoun Issouf Bayo 31' goal
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 45' yellowcard
  • Moussa Sissoko 76' goal
  • Mileta Rajovic 89' yellowcard
  • goal Ebou Adams 2'
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 50'
  • yellowcard Sonny Bradley 89'
  • yellowcard Curtis Nelson 90'+5'

Watford vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Aug 17, 2024 3.00pm
Watford 3 - 0 Stoke
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Vakoun Issouf Bayo

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Aug 17, 2024 12.30pm
Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Jerry Yates

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.

Result

Watford 44.91% ▼ (-0.08)
Draw 25.36% ▲ (+0.01)
Derby County 29.72% ▲ (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.32% ▲ (+0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5 50.84% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 49.15% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 28.77% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 71.22% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 4.5 13.83% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 86.16% ▲ (+0.01)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5 78.13% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 21.87% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 44.88% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 55.12% ▲ (+0.06)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 69.53% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 30.47% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 1.5 33.32% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 1.5 66.68% ▼ (-0.06)

Score analysis

Watford 44.9%
Draw 25.35%
Derby County 29.72%
Watford
1-0 @ 10.12% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.15% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.7% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.64% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.9% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.75% ▼ (-0.01)
4-1 @ 1.76% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.48% ▼ (-0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.36%
Total : 44.9%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.03%
0-0 @ 6.66% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.44% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.35%
Derby County
0-1 @ 7.92% ▲ (+0.02)
1-2 @ 7.15% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 4.71% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.83% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.15% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 29.72%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 31
Watford
Feb 19, 2021 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Vicarage Road
Derby
  • Joao Pedro 19' goal
  • Will Hughes 20' yellowcard
  • Will Hughes 21' goal
  • Tom Cleverley 42' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lee Buchanan 45'
  • goal William Troost-Ekong 77' (OG)
  • yellowcard Nathan Byrne 90'+1'
Championship Gameweek 5
Derby
Oct 16, 2020 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Watford
  • George Evans 58' yellowcard
  • goal Joao Pedro 76'
  • yellowcard Ben Wilmot 90'+1'
Championship
Derby
Apr 3, 2015 7.45pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT
Watford
  • Darren Bent 45' goal
  • Craig Bryson 56' yellowcard
  • Thomas Ince 57' goal
  • Richard Keogh 95' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ben Watson 7'
  • goal Matej Vydra 23'
  • redcard Marco Motta 44'
  • yellowcard Troy Deeney 65'
  • goal Odion Ighalo 75'
  • yellowcard Matthew Connolly 91'
  • yellowcard Craig Cathcart 94'
Championship
Watford
Nov 22, 2014 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Derby
  • Gianni Munari 67' goal
  • Lloyd Doyley 84' yellowcard
  • Troy Deeney 93' yellowcard
  • Gianni Munari 93' yellowcard
  • Daniel Toszer 94' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Richard Keogh 13'
  • goal Jordan Ibe 39'
  • goal Craig Bryson 81'
Championship
Derby
Apr 26, 2014 3.00pm
4
2
HT : 1 1
FT
Watford
  • Jeff Hendrick 28' goal
  • Craig Forsyth 60' goal
  • Jeff Hendrick 81' goal
  • Chris Martin 86' goal
  • yellowcard Marco Cassetti 4'
  • goal Troy Deeney 5'
  • yellowcard Albert Riera 22'
  • yellowcard Daniel Tozser 51'
  • redcard Marco Cassetti 68'
  • goal Mathias Ranegie 70'
  • yellowcard Troy Deeney 90'
Championship
Watford
Oct 19, 2013 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
Derby
  • Fernando Forestieri 12' goal
  • Simon Iriney 21' yellowcard
  • Essaid Belkalem 58' yellowcard
  • Lewis McGugan 68' goal
  • Joel Ekstrand 78' yellowcard
  • goal Jamie Ward 8'
  • goal Jamie Ward 45'
  • yellowcard John Eustace 61'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 63'
  • yellowcard Adam Smith 77'
  • goal Conor Sammon 88'

Form Data

Watford 3 - 0 Stoke
Watford 5 - 0 MK Dons
Millwall 2 - 3 Watford
Watford 1 - 1 Brentford
Wycombe 3 - 2 Watford
Hibernian 2 - 3 Watford
Derby 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
Derby 2 - 1 Chesterfield
Blackburn 4 - 2 Derby
Derby 2 - 1 Valladolid
Barnsley 4 - 3 Derby
Shrewsbury 2 - 1 Derby