Championship

Championship | Gameweek 3

Aug 24, 2024 at 3pm UK

Vicarage Road

Watford
2 - 1
Derby

Issouf Bayo (31'), Sissoko (76')
Chakvetadze (45'), Rajovic (89')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Adams (2')
Adams (50'), Bradley (89'), Nelson (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Watford and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Watford

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Watford 3-0 Stoke
Saturday, August 17 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough
Saturday, August 17 at 12.30pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.

Result
Watford	Draw	Derby County
44.91% ( -0.08)	25.36% ( 0.01)	29.72% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 54.32% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.84% (

-0.01)

49.15% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.77% (

-0)

71.22% (

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.13% (

-0.04)

21.87% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.88% (

-0.06)

55.12% (

0.05)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.53% (

0.04)

30.47% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.32% (

0.05)

66.68% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Watford 44.9%

Derby County 29.72%

Draw 25.35%

Watford	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.36% Total : 44.9%	1-1 @ 12.03% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.35%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.72%