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Championship | Gameweek 43
Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Watford logo

Southampton
3 - 2
Watford

Smallbone (1'), Adams (20'), Downes (90+9')
Fraser (74')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Porteous (34'), Kone (85')
Hoedt (40'), Cleverley (41'), Porteous (55'), Kayembe (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Southampton 2-1 Coventry
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Ipswich 0-0 Watford
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 2-1 Watford

This has all the makings of being a tight contest where Watford are able to frustrate their opponents, much like they did at Ipswich. Nevertheless, we feel Southampton will eventually make the breakthrough and fend off the Hornets' response in a hard-earned victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 16.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawWatford
63.25% (-0.342 -0.34) 19.9% (0.17 0.17) 16.84% (0.167 0.17)
Both teams to score 56.19% (-0.254 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.09% (-0.50599999999999 -0.51)38.9% (0.498 0.5)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.78% (-0.533 -0.53)61.22% (0.526 0.53)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.28% (-0.246 -0.25)11.71% (0.238 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.17% (-0.51900000000001 -0.52)36.82% (0.513 0.51)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.64% (-0.116 -0.12)36.35% (0.11 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.86% (-0.114 -0.11)73.14% (0.10600000000001 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 63.25%
    Watford 16.84%
    Draw 19.9%
SouthamptonDrawWatford
2-1 @ 9.91% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 9.79% (0.045 0.04)
1-0 @ 9.13% (0.128 0.13)
3-1 @ 7.08% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)
3-0 @ 7% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-1 @ 3.8% (-0.067 -0.07)
4-0 @ 3.75% (-0.055 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.58% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.92% (-0.04 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.63% (-0.045 -0.04)
5-0 @ 1.61% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 63.25%
1-1 @ 9.24% (0.101 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.01% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.26% (0.098999999999999 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 19.9%
1-2 @ 4.67% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 4.31% (0.087000000000001 0.09)
0-2 @ 2.18% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.69% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.58% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 16.84%

How you voted: Southampton vs Watford

Southampton
75.9%
Draw
24.1%
Watford
0.0%
29
Head to Head
Feb 6, 2024 7.45pm
Fourth Round Replays
Southampton
3-0
Watford
Mara (52', 58'), Adams (76')
Smallbone (21'), Obling (51'), Edozie (86'), Armstrong (87')

Morris (46'), Chakvetadze (49'), Porteous (69'), Sierralta (75')
Jan 28, 2024 2pm
Fourth Round
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Martins (5')
Chakvetadze (45')
Armstrong (89')
Holgate (4'), Alcaraz (40')
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 20
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Healey (90+6')
Porteous (59'), Kone (61'), Hoedt (87')
Adams (56')
Charles (34'), Armstrong (45'), Armstrong (87'), Fraser (90+3')
Jul 23, 2022 3pm
Mar 13, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 29
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Elyounoussi (45')
Perraud (48'), Romeu (65'), Bednarek (76')
Camilo Hernandez (14', 34')
Camilo Hernandez (60'), Sissoko (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLeicester CityLeicester463141189414897
3Leeds UnitedLeeds462791081433890
4Southampton462691187632487
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4621121370472375
6Norwich CityNorwich4621101579641573
7Hull City461913146860870
8Middlesbrough46209177162969
9Coventry CityCoventry4617131670591164
10Preston North EndPreston46189195667-1163
11Bristol City461711185351262
12Cardiff CityCardiff46195225370-1762
13Millwall461611194555-1059
14Swansea CitySwansea461512195965-657
15Watford461317166161056
16Sunderland46168225254-256
17Stoke CityStoke461511204960-1156
18Queens Park RangersQPR461511204758-1156
19Blackburn RoversBlackburn461411216074-1453
20Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds46158234468-2453
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth461312215970-1151
RBirmingham CityBirmingham461311225065-1550
RHuddersfield TownHuddersfield46918194877-2945
RRotherham UnitedRotherham46512293789-5227


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