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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.53%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Stoke City |
| 32.18% | 29.68% | 38.14% |
| Both teams to score 42.69% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.69% | 64.3% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.6% | 83.4% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.35% | 36.65% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.56% | 73.44% |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.39% | 32.6% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.85% | 69.14% |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 11.99% 2-1 @ 6.75% 2-0 @ 6.02% 3-1 @ 2.26% 3-0 @ 2.01% 3-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 1.88% Total : 32.17% | 1-1 @ 13.44% 0-0 @ 11.94% 2-2 @ 3.78% Other @ 0.51% Total : 29.67% | 0-1 @ 13.39% 1-2 @ 7.53% 0-2 @ 7.5% 1-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 2.8% 2-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 2.69% Total : 38.14% |