Bundesliga Gameweek 2
Sep 6, 2026 2.30pm
Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 5.30pm
Dortmund 2 - 0 Hamburger SV

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 2.30pm
Mainz 0 - 0 SC Paderborn

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.92%. A win for Hamburger SV has a probability of 31.24% and a draw has a probability of 23.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.03%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win is 2-1 (7.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.36%).

Result

Hamburger SV 31.24% (-0.07)
Draw 23.85% (+0.12)
Mainz 05 44.92% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.58% (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.24% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 17.76% (+0.15)
Over 2.5 61.4% (-0.22)
Under 2.5 38.6% (+0.22)
Over 3.5 38.94% (-0.29)
Under 3.5 61.06% (+0.29)
Over 4.5 23.69% (-0.24)
Under 4.5 76.31% (+0.24)

First Half Winner

Hamburger SV 23.64% (-0.06)
Draw 35.66% (-0.15)
Mainz 05 40.71% (+0.22)

Team To Score First

Hamburger SV 39.71% (-0.08)
No Goal 4.74% (+0.07)
Mainz 05 55.55% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 62.38% (-0.06)
Equal 8 10.53% (+0.03)
Under 8 27.09% (+0.04)
Over 9 51.29% (-0.10)
Equal 9 11.08% (+0.02)
Under 9 37.62% (+0.06)
Over 10.5 40.54% (-0.11)
Under 10.5 59.46% (+0.11)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 1.5 37.7% (-0.16)
Under 1.5 62.3% (+0.16)
Over 2.5 15.88% (-0.10)
Under 2.5 84.12% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 5.41% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 94.59% (+0.07)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 77.79% (-0.06)
Under 0.5 22.21% (+0.07)
Over 1.5 49.6% (-0.12)
Under 1.5 50.4% (+0.12)
Over 2.5 24.8% (-0.13)
Under 2.5 75.2% (+0.14)
Over 3.5 10.1% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 89.9% (+0.10)

Score analysis

Hamburger SV 31.24%
Draw 23.84%
Mainz 05 44.91%
Hamburger SV
2-1 @ 7.36%
1-0 @ 5.98% (+0.04)
2-0 @ 4.26%
3-1 @ 3.44% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.98% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.18% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.04% (-0.06)
Total : 31.24%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.36% (+0.05)
2-2 @ 6.5% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.74% (+0.07)
3-3 @ 1.87%
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 23.84%
Mainz 05
1-2 @ 9.1% (+0.02)
0-1 @ 7.03% (+0.04)
0-2 @ 6.22% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 5.31% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 3.82% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 3.7% (-0.05)
Other @ 9.73% (-0.09)
Total : 44.91%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Nadiem Amiri 42' goal
  • Sheraldo Becker 46' yellowcard
  • Nikolas Veratschnig 59' yellowcard
  • Paul Nebel 86' yellowcard
  • goal Fábio Vieira 64'
  • yellowcard William Mikelbrencis 65'
  • yellowcard Yussuf Poulsen 65'
  • yellowcard Rayan Philippe 76'
  • yellowcard Daniel Elfadli 87'
  • yellowcard Giorgi Gocholeishvili 88'
Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2025 4.30pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2018 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Walace 28' yellowcard
  • Jann-Fiete Arp 82' yellowcard
  • Douglas Santos 90' yellowcard
  • Christian Mathenia 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gerrit Holtmann 16'
  • yellowcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 34'
  • redcard Leon-Aderemi Balogun 61'
  • yellowcard Jean-Philippe Gbamin 70'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 84'
Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2017 2.30pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT OPEL ARENA (Mainz)
  • Alexandru Maxim 2' goal
  • Stefan Bell 52' goal
  • Danny Latza 58' goal
  • Abdou Diallo 73' yellowcard
  • goal Walace 9'
  • yellowcard Mergim Mavraj 42'
  • goal Sejad Salihovic 90'
Bundesliga
May 7, 2017 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Gotoku Sakai 70' yellowcard
  • Mergim Mavraj 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Giulio Donati 78'
Bundesliga
Dec 17, 2016 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Danny Latza 35' goal
  • Pablo de Blasis 41' yellowcard
  • Danny Latza 56' goal
  • Danny Latza 67' goal
  • Danny Latza 68' yellowcard
  • goal Bobby Wood 21'
  • yellowcard Emir Spahic 43'
  • yellowcard Michael Gregoritsch 53'
  • yellowcard Matthias Ostrzolek 79'