Bundesliga Gameweek 1
Aug 29, 2026 2.30pm
Mewa Arena

Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
May 16, 2026 2.30pm
Heidenheim 0 - 2 Mainz

SC Paderborn

All competitions
Last game
Jun 27, 2020 2.30pm
Frankfurt 3 - 2 SC Paderborn

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 40.16%. A win for SC Paderborn has a probability of 33.73% and a draw has a probability of 26.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest SC Paderborn win is 0-1 (7.88%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.11%).

Result

Mainz 05 40.16% (-0.09)
Draw 26.12% (-0.06)
SC Paderborn 33.73% (+0.14)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.18% (+0.39)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.22% (+0.27)
Under 1.5 23.78% (-0.27)
Over 2.5 52.42% (+0.25)
Under 2.5 47.58% (-0.25)
Over 3.5 30.41% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 69.59% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 17.02% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 82.98% (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 30.68% (+0.33)
Draw 40.85% (-0.40)
SC Paderborn 28.47% (+0.09)

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 50.18% (-0.61)
No Goal 6.61% (-0.13)
SC Paderborn 43.21% (+0.75)

Corners

Over 8 54.96% (+1.97)
Equal 8 11.69% (+0.02)
Under 8 33.35% (-1.98)
Over 9 43.31% (+1.77)
Equal 9 11.65% (+0.21)
Under 9 45.04% (-1.97)
Over 10.5 32.65% (+1.45)
Under 10.5 67.35% (-1.46)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 40.76% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 59.24% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 17.12% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 82.88% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 5.68%
Under 3.5 94.32%

SC Paderborn Goals

Over 0.5 69.13% (+0.27)
Under 0.5 30.87% (-0.27)
Over 1.5 36.14% (+0.18)
Under 1.5 63.86% (-0.18)
Over 2.5 14.3% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 85.7% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 4.84% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 95.16% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Mainz 05 40.16%
Draw 26.11%
SC Paderborn 33.72%
Mainz 05
1-0 @ 9.28% (-0.13)
2-1 @ 8.84% (+0.12)
2-0 @ 6.44% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 4.16% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.06% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.03)
Other @ 5.47% (+0.01)
Total : 40.16%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.11% (+0.04)
0-0 @ 6.61% (-0.13)
2-2 @ 5.87% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.31% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.21% (-0.02)
Total : 26.11%
SC Paderborn
0-1 @ 7.88% (-0.05)
1-2 @ 7.82% (+0.15)
0-2 @ 5.24% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.36% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.49% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.3% (+0.03)
Other @ 4.63% (-0.03)
Total : 33.72%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Feb 29, 2020 2.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Opel Arena
  • Robin Quaison 29' goal
  • Karim Onisiwo 31' yellowcard
  • Karim Onisiwo 37' goal
  • yellowcard Klaus Gjasula 41'
  • yellowcard Sebastian Vasiliadis 57'
  • yellowcard Sven Michel 90'
Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Oct 5, 2019 2.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Benteler-Arena (Paderborn)
  • Ben Zolinski 14' goal
  • Marlon Ritter 67' yellowcard
  • goal Robin Quaison 8'
  • yellowcard Moussa Niakhate 25'
  • goal Daniel Brosinski 32'
  • yellowcard Bote Baku 35'
  • yellowcard Levin Oztunali 70'
  • yellowcard Edimilson Fernandes 83'
Bundesliga
Jan 31, 2015 2.30pm
5
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Yunus Malli 6' goal
  • Yunus Malli 46' goal
  • Pablo de Blasis 69' goal
  • Sami Allagui 82' goal
  • Johannes Geis 87' goal
  • yellowcard Rafa 32'
Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2014 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Elias Kachunga 37' goal
  • Daniel Brückner 44' yellowcard
  • Mario Vrancic 61' yellowcard
  • Uwe Hünemeier 87' goal
  • goal Shinji Okazaki 33'
  • yellowcard Daniel Brosinski 45'
  • yellowcard Joo-Ho Park 67'
  • goal Ja-Cheol Koo 94'