Bundesliga Gameweek 29
Apr 12, 2026 6.30pm
Mewa Arena

Mainz 05 vs Freiburg - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Apr 4, 2026 2.30pm
Hoffenheim 1 - 2 Mainz
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Paul Nebel

Freiburg

All competitions
Last game
Apr 4, 2026 2.30pm
Freiburg 2 - 3 Bayern
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Igor Matanovic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 53.83%. A draw has a probability of 25.7% and a win for Freiburg has a probability of 20.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.75%) , while for a Freiburg win it is 0-1 (7.24%).

Result

Mainz 05 53.83% (+0.40)
Draw 25.7% (-0.04)
Freiburg 20.46% (-0.37)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.99% (-0.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.66% (-0.25)
Under 1.5 31.34% (+0.25)
Over 2.5 43.06% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 56.94% (+0.15)
Over 3.5 22% (-0.18)
Under 3.5 78% (+0.19)
Over 4.5 11.96% (-0.19)
Under 4.5 88.04% (+0.20)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 35.91% (+0.27)
Draw 43.26% (-0.04)
Freiburg 20.83% (-0.24)

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 56.59% (+0.75)
No Goal 9.35% (+0.07)
Freiburg 34.06% (-0.80)

Corners

Over 8 59.36% (+2.39)
Equal 8 11.9% (-0.20)
Under 8 28.74% (-2.19)
Over 9 47.04% (+2.34)
Equal 9 12.32% (+0.05)
Under 9 40.64% (-2.39)
Over 10.5 35.44% (+2.09)
Under 10.5 64.56% (-2.10)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 44.9% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 55.1% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 19.38% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 80.62% (-0.10)
Over 3.5 6.61% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 93.39% (+0.05)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5 53.03% (-0.15)
Under 0.5 46.97% (+0.15)
Over 1.5 20.02% (-0.45)
Under 1.5 79.98% (+0.44)
Over 2.5 5.69% (-0.32)
Under 2.5 94.31% (+0.33)
Over 3.5 1.36% (-0.10)
Under 3.5 98.64% (+0.10)

Score analysis

Mainz 05 53.85%
Draw 25.71%
Freiburg 20.47%
Mainz 05
1-0 @ 14.78% (+0.15)
2-0 @ 10.79% (-0.04)
2-1 @ 9.51% (+0.15)
3-0 @ 5.48% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.51% (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.18% (+0.07)
Other @ 6.6% (-0.05)
Total : 53.85%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.75%
0-0 @ 9.35% (+0.07)
2-2 @ 4% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.71%
Freiburg
0-1 @ 7.24% (+0.07)
1-2 @ 5.1% (-0.06)
0-2 @ 3.05% (-0.10)
1-3 @ 1.54% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 1.22% (-0.08)
Other @ 1.35% (-0.10)
Total : 20.47%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Nov 30, 2025 6.30pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Lukas Kubler 12' goal
  • Vincenzo Grifo 26' goal
  • Johan Manzambi 50' goal
  • Patrick Osterhage 90' goal
  • redcard Paul Nebel 28'
  • yellowcard Sota Kawasaki 52'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 65'
Bundesliga Gameweek 26
Mar 15, 2025 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Phillipp Mwene 28' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Burkardt 34' goal
  • Dominik Kohr 43' redcard
  • Andreas Hanche-Olsen 74' goal
  • yellowcard Chukwubuike Adamu 2'
  • goal Michael Gregoritsch 58'
  • goal Lukas Kubler 79'
  • yellowcard Lucas Holer 87'
Bundesliga Gameweek 9
Nov 3, 2024 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Schwarzwald-Stadion
  • Kiliann Sildillia 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lee Jae-sung 44'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 70'
Bundesliga Gameweek 30
Apr 21, 2024 6.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Schwarzwald-Stadion
  • Michael Gregoritsch 6' goal
  • Lukas Kubler 31' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Hofler 42' yellowcard
  • Lucas Holer 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lee Jae-sung 35'
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 40'
  • yellowcard Tom Krauss 62'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 71'
  • yellowcard Sepp van den Berg 85'
Bundesliga Gameweek 13
Dec 3, 2023 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Leandro Barreiro 29' yellowcard
  • goal Michael Gregoritsch 69'
  • yellowcard Roland Sallai 87'
Bundesliga Gameweek 25
Mar 19, 2023 6.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Karim Onisiwo 90'+6' goal
  • goal Ritsu Doan 55'