Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 34.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.33%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (7.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.