Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Feb 28, 2026 2.30pm
BayArena

Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 2.30pm
Union Berlin 1 - 0 B. Leverkusen
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Martin Terrier

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
Mainz 1 - 1 Hamburger SV
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Nadiem Amiri

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 66.44%. A draw has a probability of 19.55% and a win for Mainz 05 has a probability of 14.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (10.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.11%) , while for a Mainz 05 win it is 0-1 (4.45%).

Result

Bayer Leverkusen 66.44% (-0.07)
Draw 19.55% (+0.02)
Mainz 05 14.01% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.1%

Goals

Over 1.5 79.05% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 20.95% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 57.26% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 42.74% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 34.69% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 65.31% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 22.66% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 77.34% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Bayer Leverkusen 50.62%
Draw 33.33%
Mainz 05 16.05%

Team To Score First

Bayer Leverkusen 69.37%
No Goal 5.47%
Mainz 05 25.16%

Corners

Over 8 59.97%
Equal 8 11.37%
Under 8 28.66%
Over 9 48.17%
Equal 9 11.8%
Under 9 40.03%
Over 10.5 36.96%
Under 10.5 63.04%

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 1.5 61.46% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 38.54% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 35.29% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 64.71% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 16.48% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 83.52% (+0.02)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 48.33% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 51.67% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 17.9% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 82.1% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 4.48% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 95.52% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.05%
Under 3.5 98.95%

Score analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 66.43%
Draw 19.55%
Mainz 05 14.01%
Bayer Leverkusen
1-0 @ 11.02% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 10.91% (-0.06)
2-1 @ 10.03% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 7.85%
3-1 @ 6.84% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.37% (-0.01)
Other @ 16.41% (-0.02)
Total : 66.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.11%
0-0 @ 5.47%
2-2 @ 4.15% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.07%
Total : 19.55%
Mainz 05
0-1 @ 4.45%
1-2 @ 4.13% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 1.77%
2-3 @ 1.08%
1-3 @ 1.05% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 14.01%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025 2.30pm
3
4
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga Gameweek 34
May 17, 2025 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Paul Nebel 35' goal
  • Stefan Bell 40' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Burkardt 63' goal
  • Andreas Hanche-Olsen 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Exequiel Palacios 40'
  • goal Patrik Schick 49'
  • yellowcard Aleix Garcia 45'+7'
  • goal Patrik Schick 54'
  • yellowcard Piero Hincapie 59'
  • yellowcard Xabi Alonso 68'
  • yellowcard Arthur 68'
  • yellowcard Xabi Alonso 68'
  • yellowcard Jonathan Tah 83'
  • yellowcard Florian Wirtz 87'
Bundesliga Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2025 7.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT BayArena
  • Alex Grimaldo 48' goal
  • Nordi Mukiele 69' yellowcard
  • Granit Xhaka 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Armindo Sieb 17'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 51'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 68'
  • yellowcard Armindo Sieb 90'+1'
Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT BayArena
  • Granit Xhaka 3' goal
  • Jeremie Frimpong 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Xabi Alonso 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Tah 49' yellowcard
  • Robert Andrich 68' goal
  • Florian Wirtz 74' yellowcard
  • goal Dominik Kohr 7'
  • yellowcard Karim Onisiwo 42'
  • yellowcard Dominik Kohr 52'
  • yellowcard Robin Zentner 54'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 66'
  • redcard Jessic Ngankam 80'
  • yellowcard Phillipp Mwene 85'
Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT OPEL ARENA
  • Edimilson Fernandes 58' yellowcard
  • Brajan Gruda 75' yellowcard
  • Marco Richter 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Leandro Barreiro 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Granit Xhaka 4'
  • goal Sepp van den Berg 18' (OG)
  • goal Alex Grimaldo 59'
  • goal Jonas Hofmann 65'
Bundesliga Gameweek 21
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Nadiem Amiri 32' goal
  • Patrik Schick 58' goal
  • goal Anthony Caci 26'
  • goal Leandro Barreiro 45'+4'
  • goal Marcus Ingvartsen 82'