Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43.39%. A draw had a probability of 28.48% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 28.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%) , while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.