Bundesliga Gameweek 27
Mar 22, 2026 4.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Danel Sinani 24' goal
  • Louis Oppie 68' yellowcard
  • Connor Metcalfe 84' yellowcard
  • Andréas Hountondji 84' yellowcard
  • Martijn Kaars 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Philipp Lienhart 46'
  • yellowcard Cyriaque Irié 46'
  • goal Igor Matanovic 65'
  • yellowcard Derry Scherhant 68'
  • goal Igor Matanovic 78'
  • yellowcard Lucas Höler 86'
  • yellowcard Patrick Osterhage 89'

St Pauli vs Freiburg - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
Mar 13, 2026 7.30pm
Borussia M'bach 2 - 0 St Pauli
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

Freiburg

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 4.30pm
Freiburg 0 - 1 Union Berlin
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Igor Matanovic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43.39%. A draw had a probability of 28.48% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 28.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%) , while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result

St Pauli 43.39% (+0.11)
Draw 28.48% (-0.04)
Freiburg 28.13% (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

43.76%

Goals

Over 1.5 65.44% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 34.56% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 39.38% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 60.62% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 19.53% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 80.47% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 9.97% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 90.03% (-0.07)

First Half Winner

St Pauli 28.5%
Draw 46.27%
Freiburg 25.23%

Team To Score First

St Pauli 45.5% (+0.03)
No Goal 10.92% (-0.05)
Freiburg 43.58% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 58.24% (-0.05)
Equal 8 11.65%
Under 8 30.1% (+0.06)
Over 9 46.31% (-0.05)
Equal 9 11.93%
Under 9 41.76% (+0.05)
Over 10.5 35.14% (-0.04)
Under 10.5 64.86% (+0.05)

St Pauli Goals

Over 1.5 35.8% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 64.2% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 13.47% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 86.53% (-0.10)
Over 3.5 4.16% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 95.84% (-0.05)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5 58.82% (-0.03)
Under 0.5 41.18% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 24.74% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 75.26% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 8.09% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 91.91% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.17% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.83% (-0.02)

Score analysis

St Pauli 43.4%
Draw 28.48%
Freiburg 28.13%
St Pauli
1-0 @ 13.84% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.63% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 8.14%
3-0 @ 3.71% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 3.35% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 1.64% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.09% (+0.05)
Total : 43.4%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.78%
0-0 @ 10.92% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 4.1%
Other @ 0.07% (+0.02)
Total : 28.48%
Freiburg
0-1 @ 9.81% (-0.03)
1-2 @ 6.27% (-0.03)
0-2 @ 4.64% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.12%
0-3 @ 1.73% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.46%
Other @ 2.1% (+0.02)
Total : 28.13%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2025 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga Gameweek 22
Feb 15, 2025 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • David Nemeth 63' yellowcard
  • goal Philipp Treu 88' (OG)
Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Sep 28, 2024 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Schwarzwald-Stadion
  • Matthias Ginter 35' yellowcard
  • Lukas Kubler 44' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Hofler 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Elias Saad 12'
  • goal Oladapo Afolayan 45'
  • yellowcard Johannes Eggestein 53'
  • yellowcard Manolis Saliakas 63'
  • goal Elias Saad 72'
  • yellowcard Scott Banks 90'+5'
DFB-Pokal
Oct 19, 2022 5.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
ET Schwarzwald-Stadion
  • Matthias Ginter 90'+3' goal
  • Michael Gregoritsch 119' goal
  • goal Lukas Daschner 42'