Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 25.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (6.44%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.