Bundesliga Gameweek 32
May 3, 2026 2.30pm
Millerntor-Stadion

St Pauli vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 2.30pm
Heidenheim 2 - 0 St Pauli
Goals scored
26
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Apr 25, 2026 2.30pm
Mainz 3 - 4 Bayern
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Paul Nebel

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for St Pauli has a probability of 33.4% and a draw has a probability of 27.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest St Pauli win is 1-0 (9.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.83%).

Result

St Pauli 33.4%
Draw 27.15%
Mainz 05 39.45%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.21%

Goals

Over 1.5 71.12% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 28.88% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 45.56% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 54.44% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 24.43%
Under 3.5 75.57%
Over 4.5 12.64%
Under 4.5 87.36%

First Half Winner

St Pauli 24.98%
Draw 44.42%
Mainz 05 30.61%

Team To Score First

St Pauli 44.01%
No Goal 8.43%
Mainz 05 47.56%

Corners

Over 8 52.91%
Equal 8 12.18%
Under 8 34.91%
Over 9 40.95%
Equal 9 11.96%
Under 9 47.09%
Over 10.5 30.21%
Under 10.5 69.79%

St Pauli Goals

Over 1.5 31.69% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 68.31% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 11.35%
Under 2.5 88.65%
Over 3.5 3.16%
Under 3.5 96.84%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 70.68% (+0.03)
Under 0.5 29.32% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 36.71% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 63.29% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 14.2% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 85.8% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 4.49%
Under 3.5 95.51%

Score analysis

St Pauli 33.41%
Draw 27.16%
Mainz 05 39.45%
St Pauli
1-0 @ 9.75%
2-1 @ 7.4% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 5.79%
3-1 @ 3.02% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.26% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.08%
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 33.41%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.83%
0-0 @ 8.43%
2-2 @ 5.02% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.05%
Total : 27.16%
Mainz 05
0-1 @ 10.72% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 8.47% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.94%
1-3 @ 3.76%
0-3 @ 2.99% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.13%
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 39.45%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Dec 21, 2025 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Kaishu Sano 32' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mathias Pereira Lage 62'
Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Feb 22, 2025 2.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Mewa Arena
  • Kaishu Sano 18' yellowcard
  • Dominik Kohr 50' yellowcard
  • Lee Jae-sung 67' goal
  • Paul Nebel 87' yellowcard
  • Paul Nebel 90'+5' goal
  • yellowcard Philipp Treu 24'
  • yellowcard Siebe Van der Heyden 65'
  • yellowcard David Nemeth 90'+4'
Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Oct 5, 2024 5.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 5'
  • goal Armindo Sieb 16'
  • yellowcard Armindo Sieb 20'
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 62'
  • yellowcard Moritz Jenz 79'
  • yellowcard Dominik Kohr 88'