Bundesliga Gameweek 29
Apr 11, 2026 5.30pm
Millerntor-Stadion

St Pauli vs Bayern Munich - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Last game
Apr 5, 2026 2.30pm
Union Berlin 1 - 1 St Pauli
Goals scored
25
Top scorer
Martijn Kaars

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Last game
Apr 4, 2026 2.30pm
Freiburg 2 - 3 Bayern
Goals scored
100
Top scorer
Harry Kane

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.5%. A draw has a probability of 19.14% and a win for St Pauli has a probability of 11.36%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (13.15%) and 0-3 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.25%) , while for a St Pauli win it is 1-0 (4.27%).

Result

St Pauli 11.36% (+0.73)
Draw 19.14% (+0.72)
Bayern Munich 69.5% (-1.46)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.01% (+0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.51% (-0.65)
Under 1.5 24.49% (+0.64)
Over 2.5 52.55% (-0.54)
Under 2.5 47.45% (+0.54)
Over 3.5 31.9% (-0.74)
Under 3.5 68.1% (+0.76)
Over 4.5 21.7% (-1.36)
Under 4.5 78.3% (+1.35)

First Half Winner

St Pauli 16.92% (+0.13)
Draw 37.62% (-0.13)
Bayern Munich 45.47% (+0.01)

Team To Score First

St Pauli 26.37% (+1.27)
No Goal 6.96% (+0.13)
Bayern Munich 66.67% (-1.40)

Corners

Over 8 64.12% (+1.40)
Equal 8 10.27% (-0.46)
Under 8 25.61% (-0.95)
Over 9 53.14% (+1.76)
Equal 9 10.98% (-0.37)
Under 9 35.88% (-1.40)
Over 10.5 42.33% (+2.00)
Under 10.5 57.67% (-2.00)

St Pauli Goals

Over 1.5 13.72% (+1.41)
Under 1.5 86.28% (-1.41)
Over 2.5 3.47% (+0.68)
Under 2.5 96.53% (-0.68)
Over 3.5 0.8% (+0.18)
Under 3.5 99.2% (-0.18)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5 86.23% (-0.40)
Under 0.5 13.77% (+0.41)
Over 1.5 61.04% (-1.39)
Under 1.5 38.96% (+1.39)
Over 2.5 35.05% (-1.99)
Under 2.5 64.95% (+1.99)
Over 3.5 16.72% (-1.97)
Under 3.5 83.28% (+1.97)

Score analysis

St Pauli 11.36%
Draw 19.15%
Bayern Munich 69.49%
St Pauli
1-0 @ 4.27% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 2.79% (+0.19)
2-0 @ 1.55% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.75% (+0.16)
Total : 11.36%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.25% (+0.16)
0-0 @ 6.96% (+0.13)
2-2 @ 3.22% (+0.34)
Other @ 0.05% (+0.03)
Total : 19.15%
Bayern Munich
0-1 @ 13.26% (+0.49)
0-2 @ 13.15% (-0.25)
0-3 @ 8.87% (-0.50)
1-2 @ 8.75% (+0.41)
1-3 @ 6.1% (+0.14)
2-3 @ 2.69% (+0.24)
Other @ 16.67% (-1.98)
Total : 69.49%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Nov 29, 2025 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Raphael Guerreiro 44' goal
  • Jonathan Tah 83' yellowcard
  • Luis Diaz 90'+3' goal
  • Nicolas Jackson 90'+6' goal
  • goal Andreas Hountondji 6'
  • yellowcard Karol Mets 39'
Bundesliga Gameweek 27
Mar 29, 2025 2.30pm
3
2
HT : 1 1
FT Allianz Arena
  • Raphael Guerreiro 13' yellowcard
  • Harry Kane 17' goal
  • Michael Olise 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Joao Palhinha 51' yellowcard
  • Leroy Sane 53' goal
  • Leroy Sane 71' goal
  • goal Elias Saad 27'
  • goal Lars Ritzka 90'+3'
Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Nov 9, 2024 2.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Millerntor-Stadion
  • Morgan Guilavogui 64' yellowcard
  • Alexander Blessin 65' yellowcard
  • Manolis Saliakas 66' yellowcard
  • goal Jamal Musiala 22'
  • yellowcard Kim Min-jae 66'
  • yellowcard Konrad Laimer 90'+2'