Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Feb 28, 2026 5.30pm
Signal Iduna Park

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 5.30pm
RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Dortmund
Goals scored
49
Top scorer
Serhou Guirassy

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 2.30pm
Bayern 3 - 2 Frankfurt
Goals scored
85
Top scorer
Harry Kane

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Borussia Dortmund has a probability of 33.19% and a draw has a probability of 22.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (6.81%) and 0-1 (6.34%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win is 2-1 (7.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.09%).

Result

Borussia Dortmund 33.19%
Draw 22.91%
Bayern Munich 43.94%

Both Teams to Score: 

61.34% (+0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.96%
Under 1.5 17.04%
Over 2.5 61.52% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 38.48% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 38.59% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 61.41% (-0.08)
Over 4.5 23.99% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 76.01% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Borussia Dortmund 30.94%
Draw 37.43%
Bayern Munich 31.63%

Team To Score First

Borussia Dortmund 48.15% (+0.01)
No Goal 4.32% (-0.01)
Bayern Munich 47.53%

Corners

Over 8 56.9%
Equal 8 11%
Under 8 32.1%
Over 9 45.76%
Equal 9 11.13%
Under 9 43.1%
Over 10.5 35.37%
Under 10.5 64.63%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 1.5 38.72% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 61.28% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 16.77% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 83.23% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 5.66% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.34% (-0.01)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5 76.84% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 23.16% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 49.13%
Under 1.5 50.87%
Over 2.5 24.12%
Under 2.5 75.88%
Over 3.5 10.24% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 89.76% (-0.01)

Score analysis

Borussia Dortmund 33.18%
Draw 22.91%
Bayern Munich 43.92%
Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 7.6%
1-0 @ 6.39% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 4.57% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.68%
3-2 @ 3.05%
3-0 @ 2.5%
Other @ 5.39% (+0.01)
Total : 33.18%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.09%
2-2 @ 6.35% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.32% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.88%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.91%
Bayern Munich
1-2 @ 8.8%
0-2 @ 6.81% (-0.02)
0-1 @ 6.34% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 4.55%
0-3 @ 4.02% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 3.43%
Other @ 9.97% (+0.01)
Total : 43.92%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Bundesliga Gameweek 29
Apr 12, 2025 5.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Arena
  • Raphael Guerreiro 65' goal
  • Serge Gnabry 69' goal
  • goal Maximilian Beier 48'
  • goal Waldemar Anton 75'
Bundesliga Gameweek 12
Nov 30, 2024 5.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Signal-Iduna-Park
  • Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 27' goal
  • Julian Ryerson 71' yellowcard
  • Nuri Sahin 80' yellowcard
  • Maximilian Beier 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Jamal Musiala 85'
  • yellowcard Leroy Sane 88'
  • yellowcard Dayot Upamecano 90'+3'
Bundesliga Gameweek 27
Mar 30, 2024 5.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Allianz Arena
  • goal Karim Adeyemi 10'
  • goal Julian Ryerson 83'
Bundesliga Gameweek 10
Nov 4, 2023 5.30pm
0
4
HT : 0 2
FT Signal-Iduna-Park
  • Mats Hummels 61' yellowcard
  • Julian Ryerson 74' yellowcard
  • Marcel Sabitzer 76' yellowcard
  • goal Dayot Upamecano 4'
  • goal Harry Kane 9'
  • yellowcard Leroy Sane 22'
  • yellowcard Thomas Tuchel 42'
  • goal Harry Kane 72'
  • yellowcard Konrad Laimer 85'
  • goal Harry Kane 90'+3'
Bundesliga Gameweek 26
Apr 1, 2023 5.30pm
4
2
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Gregor Kobel 13' goal
  • Thomas Muller 18' goal
  • Thomas Muller 23' goal
  • Kingsley Coman 50' goal
  • goal Emre Can 72'
  • goal Donyell Malen 90'