Feb 21, 2026 5.30pm

2

2

HT : 2 0

FT Red Bull Arena

Christoph Baumgartner 20'
Christoph Baumgartner 39'
Antonio Nusa 65'
Ezechiel Banzuzi 81'
Conrad Harder 81'
Benjamin Henrichs 82'
Conrad Harder 82'
Ezechiel Banzuzi 82'
Max Finkgräfe 90'
Max Finkgräfe 90'+4'

Rômulo 50' (OG)
Carney Chukwuemeka 64'
Julian Brandt 64'
Yan Couto 64'
Yan Couto 65'
Carney Chukwuemeka 65'
Fábio Silva 71'
Fábio Silva 72'
Karim Adeyemi 76'
Fábio Silva 90'+5'

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

RB Leipzig vs Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Preview: RB Leipzig vs Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Football | 20 Feb 2026 01:43

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

D
L
W
L
D
W

Bundesliga

D
W
L
D
W
L

Last game

Feb 15, 2026 4.30pm

RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Wolfsburg

Goals scored

53

Top scorer

Christoph Baumgartner

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

W
W
W
W
L
W

Bundesliga

W
W
W
W
W
W

Last game

Feb 13, 2026 7.30pm

Dortmund 4 - 0 Mainz

Goals scored

58

Top scorer

Serhou Guirassy

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.09%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.

Result

RB Leipzig 40.02% ▲ (+0.03)

Draw 23.03% ▲ (+0.02)

Borussia Dortmund 36.95% ▼ (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score:

65.94% ▲ (+0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.95% ▲ (+0.07)

Under 1.5 15.05% ▼ (-0.06)

Over 2.5 65.79% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 2.5 34.21% ▼ (-0.02)

Over 3.5 43.49% ▼ (-0.01)

Under 3.5 56.51% ▲ (+0.01)

Over 4.5 27.09% ▲ (+0.04)

Under 4.5 72.91% ▼ (-0.05)

First Half Winner

RB Leipzig 32.7%

Draw 38.46%

Borussia Dortmund 28.84%

Team To Score First

RB Leipzig 51.7% ▼ (-0.01)

No Goal 3.6% ▼ (-0.01)

Borussia Dortmund 44.7% ▲ (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 62.38% ▲ (+0.02)

Equal 8 10.91%

Under 8 26.72% ▼ (-0.02)

Over 9 50.85% ▲ (+0.01)

Equal 9 11.53%

Under 9 37.62% ▼ (-0.02)

Over 10.5 39.68% ▲ (+0.01)

Under 10.5 60.32% ▼ (-0.01)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 1.5 47.82% ▲ (+0.07)

Under 1.5 52.18% ▼ (-0.07)

Over 2.5 23.1% ▲ (+0.04)

Under 2.5 76.9% ▼ (-0.04)

Over 3.5 8.98% ▲ (+0.01)

Under 3.5 91.02% ▼ (-0.02)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5 73.76% ▲ (+0.05)

Under 0.5 26.24% ▼ (-0.05)

Over 1.5 45.4%

Under 1.5 54.6%

Over 2.5 21.62% ▲ (+0.02)

Under 2.5 78.38% ▼ (-0.02)

Over 3.5 8.32% ▲ (+0.02)

Under 3.5 91.68% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

RB Leipzig 40.04%

Draw 23.03%

Borussia Dortmund 36.94%

RB Leipzig

2-1 @ 8.58% ▲ (+0.05)

1-0 @ 6.09% ▼ (-0.03)

2-0 @ 5.04%

3-1 @ 4.86% ▼ (-0.01)

3-2 @ 3.95% ▲ (+0.02)

3-0 @ 3% ▲ (+0.01)

Other @ 8.52% ▲ (+0.01)

Total : 40.04%

Draw

1-1 @ 9.55% ▲ (+0.02)

2-2 @ 7.11%

0-0 @ 3.6% ▼ (-0.01)

3-3 @ 2.31% ▲ (+0.02)

Other @ 0.46%

Total : 23.03%

Borussia Dortmund

1-2 @ 8.16% ▼ (-0.02)

0-1 @ 5.37%

0-2 @ 4.56%

1-3 @ 4.44% ▼ (-0.02)

2-3 @ 3.99% ▼ (-0.01)

0-3 @ 2.56% ▲ (+0.02)

Other @ 7.86% ▲ (+0.03)

Total : 36.94%

Head to Head

Oct 4, 2025 2.30pm

1

1

HT : 0 0

FT

Mar 15, 2025 5.30pm

2

0

HT : 1 0

FT Red Bull Arena

Xavi Simons 17'
Lois Openda 48'
David Raum 63'
Amadou Haidara 86'
Castello Lukeba 87'

Emre Can 10'
Julian Ryerson 45'+1'
Carney Chukwuemeka 83'

Nov 2, 2024 5.30pm

2

1

HT : 1 1

FT Signal-Iduna-Park

Maximilian Beier 21'
Maximilian Beier 30'
Ramy Bensebaini 34'
Serhou Guirassy 65'
Ayman Azhil 90'+7'

Christoph Baumgartner 8'
Benjamin Sesko 27'
Benjamin Henrichs 35'
Lutsharel Geertruida 40'
Kevin Kampl 81'

Apr 27, 2024 2.30pm

4

1

HT : 2 1

FT Trainingszentrum RB Leipzig Platz 1

Lois Openda 23'
Mohamed Simakan 37'
Mohamed Simakan 46'
Benjamin Sesko 45'+2'
Christoph Baumgartner 80'

Jadon Sancho 20'
Jadon Sancho 37'
Nico Schlotterbeck 76'

Dec 9, 2023 5.30pm

2

3

HT : 1 1

FT Signal-Iduna-Park

Mats Hummels 15'
Niklas Sule 45'+6'
Salih Ozcan 60'
Niclas Fullkrug 90'+3'

Ramy Bensebaini 32' (OG)
Mohamed Simakan 35'
Christoph Baumgartner 54'
Xavi Simons 61'
Lois Openda 66'
Yussuf Poulsen 90'+1'

Apr 5, 2023 7.45pm

2

0

HT : 1 0

FT Red Bull Arena

Timo Werner 22'
Willi Orban 90'+8'

Form Data

RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Wolfsburg

Bayern 2 - 0 RB Leipzig

FC Koln 1 - 2 RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig 1 - 2 Mainz

St Pauli 1 - 1 RB Leipzig

Heidenheim 0 - 3 RB Leipzig

Dortmund 2 - 0 Atalanta

Dortmund 4 - 0 Mainz

Wolfsburg 1 - 2 Dortmund

Dortmund 3 - 2 Heidenheim

Dortmund 0 - 2 Inter Milan

Union Berlin 0 - 3 Dortmund