DFB-Pokal
Bayern
Feb 11, 2026 7.45pm
Allianz Arena
RB Leipzig

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayern Munich

All competitions

RB Leipzig

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.11%. A draw has a probability of 16.23% and a win for RB Leipzig has a probability of 14.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win is 2-0 with a probability of 8.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.98%) and 3-1 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.09%) , while for a RB Leipzig win it is 1-2 (4.53%).

Result

Bayern Munich 69.11% ▲ (+0.16)
Draw 16.23% ▼ (-0.11)
RB Leipzig 14.67% ▼ (-0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.74% ▲ (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 88.08% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 1.5 11.92% ▼ (-0.07)
Over 2.5 70.85% ▲ (+0.21)
Under 2.5 29.15% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 50.93% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 3.5 49.07% ▼ (-0.14)
Over 4.5 37.1% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 4.5 62.9% ▼ (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Bayern Munich 50.59% ▼ (-0.31)
Draw 29.79% ▼ (-0.14)
RB Leipzig 19.62% ▲ (+0.45)

Team To Score First

Bayern Munich 68.22% ▼ (-0.49)
No Goal 2.67% ▼ (-0.04)
RB Leipzig 29.11% ▲ (+0.51)

Corners

Over 8 61.47% ▼ (-0.19)
Equal 8 11.04% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 27.5% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 9 49.89% ▼ (-0.19)
Equal 9 11.58%
Under 9 38.53% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 10.5 38.75% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 10.5 61.25% ▲ (+0.18)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 1.5 70.77% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 1.5 29.23% ▼ (-0.20)
Over 2.5 48.13% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 51.87% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 27.06% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 3.5 72.94% ▼ (-0.16)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 48.59% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 0.5 51.41% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 1.5 23.05% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 76.95% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 2.5 7.25% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 2.5 92.75% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 2.39% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.61% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Bayern Munich 69.1%
Draw 16.23%
RB Leipzig 14.68%
Bayern Munich
2-0 @ 8.29% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 7.98%
3-1 @ 7.66% ▲ (+0.08)
3-0 @ 7.18% ▲ (+0.02)
1-0 @ 6.45% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 4.71% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 26.83% ▲ (+0.14)
Total : 69.1%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.09% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 4.72% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 2.67% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 1.52% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.23% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 16.23%
RB Leipzig
1-2 @ 4.53% ▲ (+0.03)
0-1 @ 2.81% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.04)
2-3 @ 1.65% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 2.16% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 14.68%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 18
RB Leipzig
Jan 17, 2026 5.30pm
1
5
HT : 1 0
FT Red Bull Arena
Bayern
  • Romulo Cardoso 20' goal
  • yellowcard Joshua Kimmich 46'
  • goal Serge Gnabry 50'
Bundesliga
Bayern
Aug 22, 2025 7.30pm
6
0
HT : 0 0
FT
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga Gameweek 32
RB Leipzig
May 3, 2025 2.30pm
3
3
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
Bayern
  • Benjamin Sesko 11' goal
  • Lukas Klostermann 39' goal
  • David Raum 50' yellowcard
  • Kevin Kampl 77' yellowcard
  • Kevin Kampl 78' yellowcard
  • Arthur Vermeeren 89' yellowcard
  • Yussuf Poulsen 90'+4' goal
  • goal Eric Dier 62'
  • goal Michael Olise 63'
  • yellowcard Eric Dier 73'
  • goal Leroy Sane 83'
Bundesliga Gameweek 15
Bayern
Dec 20, 2024 7.30pm
5
1
HT : 3 1
FT Allianz Arena
RB Leipzig
  • Jamal Musiala 1' goal
  • Dayot Upamecano 20' yellowcard
  • Konrad Laimer 25' goal
  • Joshua Kimmich 36' goal
  • Michael Olise 56' yellowcard
  • Harry Kane 60' yellowcard
  • Konrad Laimer 64' yellowcard
  • Leroy Sane 75' goal
  • Alphonso Davies 78' goal
  • Joshua Kimmich 82' yellowcard
  • goal Benjamin Sesko 2'
  • yellowcard Xaver Schlager 26'
  • yellowcard Marco Rose 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 59'
Bundesliga Gameweek 23
Bayern
Feb 24, 2024 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Arena
RB Leipzig
  • Aleksandar Pavlovic 37' yellowcard
  • Harry Kane 56' goal
  • Matthijs de Ligt 59' yellowcard
  • Jamal Musiala 66' yellowcard
  • Harry Kane 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Willi Orban 41'
  • yellowcard Xaver Schlager 67'
  • goal Benjamin Sesko 70'
  • yellowcard Mohamed Simakan 78'
Bundesliga Gameweek 6
RB Leipzig
Sep 30, 2023 5.30pm
2
2
HT : 4 0
FT Red Bull Arena
Bayern
  • Lois Openda 20' goal
  • Lois Openda 20' goal
  • Castello Lukeba 26' goal
  • Castello Lukeba 26' goal
  • Mohamed Simakan 54' yellowcard
  • Castello Lukeba 64' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Harry Kane 38'
  • yellowcard Sven Ulreich 44'
  • yellowcard Dayot Upamecano 51'
  • goal Harry Kane 57'
  • goal Leroy Sane 70'
  • yellowcard Jamal Musiala 72'
  • yellowcard Mathys Tel 81'

Form Data

Bayern 5 - 1 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV 2 - 2 Bayern
PSV 1 - 2 Bayern
Bayern 1 - 2 Augsburg
Bayern 2 - 0 Union SG
RB Leipzig 1 - 5 Bayern
FC Koln 0 - 0 RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig 1 - 2 Mainz
St Pauli 0 - 0 RB Leipzig
Heidenheim 0 - 3 RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig 1 - 5 Bayern
RB Leipzig 2 - 0 Freiburg