Bundesliga
Mainz
May 10, 2026 6.30pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT Mewa Arena
Union Berlin
  • Kacper Potulski 16' yellowcard
  • Sheraldo Becker 48' goal
  • Jae-sung Lee 70' yellowcard
  • Nikolas Veratschnig 70' yellowcard
  • Armindo Sieb 81' yellowcard
  • Nelson Weiper 81' yellowcard
  • goal Andrej Ilic 38'
  • yellowcard Woo-yeong Jeong  59'
  • yellowcard Derrick Köhn 60'
  • yellowcard András Schäfer 60'
  • yellowcard Josip Juranovic 81'
  • goal Oliver Burke 88'
  • yellowcard Tim Skarke 88'
  • yellowcard Tim Skarke 89'
  • goal Josip Juranovic 90'+1'

Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 2.30pm
St Pauli 1 - 2 Mainz
Goals scored
40
Top scorer
Phillip Tietz

Union Berlin

All competitions
Last game
May 2, 2026 2.30pm
Union Berlin 2 - 2 FC Koln
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Rani Khedira

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.56%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 24.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (6.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.

Result

Mainz 05 51.56% ▼ (-0.06)
Draw 23.92% ▲ (+0.04)
Union Berlin 24.55% ▲ (+0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.28% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.14% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 20.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 57.16%
Under 2.5 42.84%
Over 3.5 34.98%
Under 3.5 65.02%
Over 4.5 20.85% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 4.5 79.15% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Mainz 05 39.35%
Draw 40.19%
Union Berlin 20.46%

Team To Score First

Mainz 05 56.48%
No Goal 5.48% ▲ (+0.02)
Union Berlin 38.04% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 56.81%
Equal 8 11.56%
Under 8 31.63%
Over 9 45.12%
Equal 9 11.69%
Under 9 43.19%
Over 10.5 34.27%
Under 10.5 65.73%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 1.5 52.03% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 47.97% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 26.23% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 73.77% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 10.8% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 89.2% ▲ (+0.02)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5 61.76% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 0.5 38.24% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 1.5 29.63% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 1.5 70.37% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 11.14% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 88.86% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 3.28% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 96.72% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Mainz 05 51.56%
Draw 23.93%
Union Berlin 24.54%
Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.73%
1-0 @ 9.55%
2-0 @ 8.05% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4.76% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.22%
Other @ 10.43% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 51.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.72% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 5.48% ▲ (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.63% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.37% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 23.93%
Union Berlin
1-2 @ 6.33% ▲ (+0.01)
0-1 @ 5.86% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.21% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.58%
2-3 @ 2.29%
0-3 @ 1.36%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 24.54%

Head to Head

Bundesliga Gameweek 16
Union Berlin
Jan 10, 2026 2.30pm
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Mainz
Bundesliga Gameweek 18
Union Berlin
Jan 19, 2025 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Mainz
  • Nadiem Amiri 5' goal
  • Robert Skov 24' goal
  • Aljoscha Kemlein 32' yellowcard
  • Leopold Querfeld 86' yellowcard
  • goal Benedict Hollerbach 1'
  • yellowcard Anthony Caci 26'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 32'
Bundesliga Gameweek 1
Mainz
Aug 24, 2024 2.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Mewa Arena
Union Berlin
  • Dominik Kohr 7' yellowcard
  • Nadiem Amiri 53' goal
  • yellowcard Lucas Tousart 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Danilho Doekhi 52'
  • goal Laszlo Benes 74'
  • yellowcard Robin Gosens 90'+8'
Bundesliga Gameweek 18
Mainz
Feb 7, 2024 5.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Mewa Arena
Union Berlin
  • Ludovic Ajorque 15' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Burkardt 45'+8' goal
  • Dominik Kohr 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kevin Vogt 53'
  • goal Robin Gosens 45'+13'
  • yellowcard Diogo Leite 79'
  • yellowcard Janik Haberer 84'
  • yellowcard Danilho Doekhi 89'
Bundesliga Gameweek 1
Union Berlin
Aug 20, 2023 2.30pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
Mainz
  • Kevin Behrens 1' goal
  • Kevin Behrens 9' goal
  • Kevin Behrens 10' yellowcard
  • Kevin Behrens 70' goal
  • Milos Pantovic 90'+6' goal
  • yellowcard Lee Jae-sung 31'
  • yellowcard Dominik Kohr 51'
  • yellowcard Danny da Costa 58'
  • goal Anthony Caci 64'
  • yellowcard Leandro Barreiro 79'
  • yellowcard Sepp van den Berg 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Bo Svensson 90'+90'
Bundesliga Gameweek 19
Union Berlin
Feb 4, 2023 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
Mainz
  • Kevin Behrens 32' goal
  • Theoson Siebatcheu 84' goal
  • goal Marcus Ingvartsen 79'

Form Data

St Pauli 1 - 2 Mainz
Mainz 3 - 4 Bayern
Borussia M'bach 1 - 1 Mainz
Strasbourg 4 - 0 Mainz
Mainz 0 - 1 Freiburg
Mainz 2 - 0 Strasbourg
Union Berlin 2 - 2 FC Koln
RB Leipzig 3 - 1 Union Berlin
Union Berlin 1 - 2 Wolfsburg
Heidenheim 3 - 1 Union Berlin
Union Berlin 1 - 1 St Pauli
Bayern 4 - 0 Union Berlin