Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 36.47%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 34.27% and a draw had a probability of 29.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 0-1 (10.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.