Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.28%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.