Bundesliga Gameweek 17
Mar 4, 2026 7.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Volksparkstadion
  • William Mikelbrencis 29' yellowcard
  • Otto Stange 65' yellowcard
  • Jean-Luc Dompé 65' yellowcard
  • Jordan Torunarigha 65' yellowcard
  • Albert Sambi Lokonga 81' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Malik Tillman 71'
  • goal Christian Kofane 73'
  • yellowcard Ernest Poku 80'
  • yellowcard Ezequiel Fernández 90'

Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 6.30pm
Hamburger SV 1 - 2 RB Leipzig
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Fabio Vieira

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen 1 - 1 Mainz
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Martin Terrier

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 2-1 (8.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.

Result

Hamburger SV 35.73% (-0.15)
Draw 24.91% (+0.02)
Bayer Leverkusen 39.38% (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.39% (-0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.24% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 21.76% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 55.39% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 44.61% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 32.84%
Under 3.5 67.16% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 18.9%
Under 4.5 81.1%

First Half Winner

Hamburger SV 29.4% (-0.03)
Draw 39.74%
Bayer Leverkusen 30.86% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Hamburger SV 43.68% (-0.08)
No Goal 5.73% (+0.03)
Bayer Leverkusen 50.59% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 59.76% (-0.10)
Equal 8 11.42% (+0.01)
Under 8 28.82% (+0.09)
Over 9 47.93% (-0.10)
Equal 9 11.83%
Under 9 40.24% (+0.10)
Over 10.5 36.71% (-0.09)
Under 10.5 63.29% (+0.09)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 1.5 38.68% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 61.32% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 16.1% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 83.9% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 5.6% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 94.4% (+0.03)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5 73.26% (+0.06)
Under 0.5 26.74% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 41.54% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 58.46% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 17.99% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 82.01% (-0.06)
Over 3.5 6.29% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 93.71% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Hamburger SV 35.74%
Draw 24.92%
Bayer Leverkusen 39.38%
Hamburger SV
2-1 @ 8.17% (-0.03)
1-0 @ 7.79% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 5.3% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.75% (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.77% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.58% (-0.01)
Other @ 5.38% (-0.04)
Total : 35.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.52% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.05%
0-0 @ 5.73% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.22% (+0.02)
Total : 24.92%
Bayer Leverkusen
1-2 @ 8.71% (+0.02)
0-1 @ 8.28% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 6.02% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 4.14% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.1% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.06%
Other @ 6.07% (+0.04)
Total : 39.38%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Feb 17, 2018 2.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Mergim Mavraj 11' yellowcard
  • Andre Hahn 70' goal
  • Sejad Salihovic 77' yellowcard
  • goal Leon Bailey 40'
  • goal Kai Havertz 50'
  • yellowcard Panagiotis Retsos 53'
  • yellowcard Charles Aranguiz 87'
Bundesliga
Sep 24, 2017 5.00pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Kevin Volland 20' goal
  • Lucas Alario 23' goal
  • Wendell 41' yellowcard
  • Charles Aranguiz 75' yellowcard
  • Kevin Volland 83' goal
  • yellowcard Walace 22'
  • yellowcard Kyriakos Papadopoulos 26'
Bundesliga
Feb 3, 2017 7.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Kyriakos Papadopoulos 76' goal
  • yellowcard Karim Bellarabi 38'
  • yellowcard Kevin Kampl 69'
  • yellowcard Wendell 79'
Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2016 2.30pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jonathan Tah 71' yellowcard
  • Joel Pohjanpalo 79' goal
  • Kevin Kampl 90' yellowcard
  • Joel Pohjanpalo 91' goal
  • Joel Pohjanpalo 94' goal
  • goal Bobby Wood 58'
  • yellowcard Aaron Hunt 83'
Bundesliga
Mar 13, 2016 2.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Albin Ekdal 0' goal
  • Marlon Frey 27' yellowcard
  • Omer Toprak 34' yellowcard
  • Wendell 49' yellowcard
  • Tin Jedvaj 96' yellowcard
  • Tin Jedvaj 96' redcard
  • Robbie Kruse 97' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ivo Ilicevic 23'
  • yellowcard Nicolai Muller 31'
Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2015 2.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Aaron Hunt 26' yellowcard
  • Pierre-Michel Lasogga 31' yellowcard
  • Albin Ekdal 38' yellowcard
  • Ivo Ilicevic 59' yellowcard
  • Marcelo Diaz 88' yellowcard
  • Emir Spahic 91' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Javier Hernandez 74'
  • yellowcard Tin Jedvaj 75'