Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 2-1 (8.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.