Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Mar 1, 2026 6.30pm
Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
Mainz 1 - 1 Hamburger SV
Goals scored
24
Top scorer
Ransford Königsdörffer

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 5.30pm
RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Dortmund
Goals scored
44
Top scorer
Christoph Baumgartner

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 39.15%. A win for RB Leipzig has a probability of 36.1% and a draw has a probability of 24.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win is 1-2 (7.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.03%).

Result

Hamburger SV 39.15% (+0.08)
Draw 24.79%
RB Leipzig 36.1% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.37% (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 77.41% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 22.59% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 54.65% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 45.35% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 33.74% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 66.26% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 19.9% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 80.1% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Hamburger SV 30.07% (-0.13)
Draw 39.03% (+0.03)
RB Leipzig 30.9% (+0.10)

Team To Score First

Hamburger SV 42.68% (+0.03)
No Goal 6.25% (-0.05)
RB Leipzig 51.07% (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 63.6%
Equal 8 11.24% (+0.01)
Under 8 25.16% (-0.02)
Over 9 51.58%
Equal 9 12.02%
Under 9 36.4%
Over 10.5 39.87%
Under 10.5 60.13%

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 1.5 40.86% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 59.14% (-0.07)
Over 2.5 17.76% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 82.24% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 6.24% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 93.76% (-0.04)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 69.84% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 30.16% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 39.2% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 60.8% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 16.95% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 83.05% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.36% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 93.64% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Hamburger SV 39.13%
Draw 24.79%
RB Leipzig 36.11%
Hamburger SV
1-0 @ 8.87% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 7.97% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 6.22%
3-1 @ 4.14%
3-2 @ 3.08%
3-0 @ 2.89% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.96% (+0.02)
Total : 39.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.03% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.25% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 5.82% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 0.28% (+0.02)
Total : 24.79%
RB Leipzig
1-2 @ 7.83% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 7.5% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.52%
1-3 @ 3.87%
2-3 @ 3.09% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 2.22% (+0.02)
Other @ 6.08%
Total : 36.11%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
DFB-Pokal
Oct 18, 2022 5.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 33' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 36' goal
  • Mohamed Simakan 69' goal
  • Benjamin Henrichs 81' goal
DFB-Pokal
Apr 23, 2019 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Bakery Jatta 24' goal
  • goal Yussuf Poulsen 12'
  • goal Vasilije Janjicic 53' (OG)
  • yellowcard Willi Orban 58'
  • goal Emil Forsberg 72'
Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2018 2.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)
  • Bruma 9' goal
  • yellowcard Aaron Hunt 9'
  • goal Filip Kostic 29'
  • yellowcard Kyriakos Papadopoulos 58'
Bundesliga
Sep 8, 2017 7.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Walace 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Naby Keita 60'
  • goal Naby Keita 67'
  • goal Timo Werner 75'
Bundesliga
Feb 11, 2017 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Timo Werner 10' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 82' yellowcard
  • goal Kyriakos Papadopoulos 18'
  • goal Walace 24'
  • yellowcard Kyriakos Papadopoulos 55'
  • yellowcard Gideon Jung 86'
  • goal Aaron Hunt 93'