Bundesliga Gameweek 24
Mar 1, 2026 6.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Volksparkstadion
  • Warmed Omari 20' yellowcard
  • Fábio Vieira 22' goal
  • Albert Sambi Lokonga 67' yellowcard
  • Philip Otele 67' yellowcard
  • Yussuf Poulsen 67' yellowcard
  • Jean-Luc Dompé 67' yellowcard
  • Yussuf Poulsen 68' yellowcard
  • Jean-Luc Dompé 68' yellowcard
  • Rayan Philippe 87' yellowcard
  • goal Rômulo 36'
  • goal Yan Diomande 50'
  • yellowcard Rômulo 62'
  • yellowcard Ezechiel Banzuzi 72'
  • yellowcard Tidiam Gomis 72'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 90'
  • yellowcard Conrad Harder 90'
  • yellowcard Benjamin Henrichs 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Conrad Harder 90'+5'

Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Hamburger SV

All competitions
Last game
Feb 20, 2026 7.30pm
Mainz 1 - 1 Hamburger SV
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Fabio Vieira

RB Leipzig

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 5.30pm
RB Leipzig 2 - 2 Dortmund
Goals scored
53
Top scorer
Christoph Baumgartner

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result

Hamburger SV 39.19% (+0.04)
Draw 24.72% (-0.04)
RB Leipzig 36.09% (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.4%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.47% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 22.53% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 54.75% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 45.25% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 33.88% (+0.15)
Under 3.5 66.12% (-0.15)
Over 4.5 19.98% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 80.02% (-0.08)

First Half Winner

Hamburger SV 30.07%
Draw 39.03%
RB Leipzig 30.9%

Team To Score First

Hamburger SV 42.7% (+0.02)
No Goal 6.19% (-0.06)
RB Leipzig 51.11% (+0.05)

Corners

Over 8 63.55%
Equal 8 11.25% (+0.02)
Under 8 25.2% (-0.02)
Over 9 51.51% (-0.04)
Equal 9 12.04% (+0.03)
Under 9 36.45%
Over 10.5 39.79% (-0.06)
Under 10.5 60.21% (+0.06)

Hamburger SV Goals

Over 1.5 40.97% (+0.12)
Under 1.5 59.03% (-0.12)
Over 2.5 17.84% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 82.16% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 6.26% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.74% (-0.02)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5 69.86% (+0.05)
Under 0.5 30.14% (-0.06)
Over 1.5 39.29% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 60.71% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 16.95% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 83.05% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.36% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 93.64% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Hamburger SV 39.19%
Draw 24.72%
RB Leipzig 36.09%
Hamburger SV
1-0 @ 8.88% (+0.02)
2-1 @ 7.94% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 6.23% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.19% (+0.06)
3-2 @ 3.11% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 2.86% (-0.04)
Other @ 5.98%
Total : 39.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.98% (-0.03)
0-0 @ 6.19% (-0.06)
2-2 @ 5.85% (+0.05)
3-3 @ 1.42% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.28% (+0.02)
Total : 24.72%
RB Leipzig
1-2 @ 7.87% (+0.04)
0-1 @ 7.46% (-0.04)
0-2 @ 5.51% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 3.86% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 3.11% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.2% (-0.03)
Other @ 6.08%
Total : 36.09%

Head to Head

Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025 2.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
DFB-Pokal
Oct 18, 2022 5.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yussuf Poulsen 33' goal
  • Yussuf Poulsen 36' goal
  • Mohamed Simakan 69' goal
  • Benjamin Henrichs 81' goal
DFB-Pokal
Apr 23, 2019 7.45pm
1
3
HT : 1 1
FT Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
  • Bakery Jatta 24' goal
  • goal Yussuf Poulsen 12'
  • goal Vasilije Janjicic 53' (OG)
  • yellowcard Willi Orban 58'
  • goal Emil Forsberg 72'
Bundesliga
Jan 27, 2018 2.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)
  • Bruma 9' goal
  • yellowcard Aaron Hunt 9'
  • goal Filip Kostic 29'
  • yellowcard Kyriakos Papadopoulos 58'
Bundesliga
Sep 8, 2017 7.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Walace 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Naby Keita 60'
  • goal Naby Keita 67'
  • goal Timo Werner 75'
Bundesliga
Feb 11, 2017 2.30pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Timo Werner 10' yellowcard
  • Willi Orban 82' yellowcard
  • goal Kyriakos Papadopoulos 18'
  • goal Walace 24'
  • yellowcard Kyriakos Papadopoulos 55'
  • yellowcard Gideon Jung 86'
  • goal Aaron Hunt 93'