Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.