Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 40.11%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.52%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (7.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.