Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.4%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 2-1 (7.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.