Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Hamburger SV had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Hamburger SV win was 1-2 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.