Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 29.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.