Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 8

Oct 16, 2021 at 2.30pm UK

Signal Iduna Park

Dortmund
3 - 1
Mainz 05

Reus (3'), Braut Haaland (54' pen., 90+4')
Schulz (13'), Akanji (35')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Burkardt (87')
Bell (50'), Svensson (54'), Ingvartsen (64'), Tauer (71'), Niakhate (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 62.8%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
62.8%	20.24%	16.95%

Both teams to score 55.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.67%

40.33%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.29%

62.71%

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.73%

12.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62%

38%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.9%

37.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.12%

73.88%

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 62.8%

Mainz 05 16.95%

Draw 20.24%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
2-0 @ 10.01% 2-1 @ 9.93% 1-0 @ 9.55% 3-0 @ 7.01% 3-1 @ 6.95% 4-0 @ 3.68% 4-1 @ 3.65% 3-2 @ 3.45% 4-2 @ 1.81% 5-0 @ 1.54% 5-1 @ 1.53% Other @ 3.7% Total : 62.8%	1-1 @ 9.47% 2-2 @ 4.93% 0-0 @ 4.55% 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.24%	1-2 @ 4.7% 0-1 @ 4.51% 0-2 @ 2.24% 2-3 @ 1.63% 1-3 @ 1.55% Other @ 2.33% Total : 16.95%