Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 52.2%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%) , while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.