Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 28.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (9.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.