Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 48.1%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 25.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.33%) and 1-2 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%) , while for a Saudi Arabia win it was 1-0 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.