Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 15
May 10, 2026 11.30pm
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional vs Cerro - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
May 4, 2026 12.00am
Albion 3 - 2 Nacional

Cerro

All competitions
Uruguayan Primera Division
Last game
May 2, 2026 7.30pm
Cerro 0 - 1 Maldonado

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 65.57%. A draw has a probability of 21.47% and a win for Cerro has a probability of 13.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.12%) , while for a Cerro win it is 0-1 (5.54%).

Result

Nacional 65.57% (-1.91)
Draw 21.47% (+0.95)
Cerro 13.01% (+1.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.75% (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.48% (-1.19)
Under 1.5 28.52% (+1.20)
Over 2.5 46.1% (-1.55)
Under 2.5 53.9% (+1.55)
Over 3.5 24.22% (-1.25)
Under 3.5 75.78% (+1.25)
Over 4.5 14.68% (-1.13)
Under 4.5 85.32% (+1.12)

First Half Winner

Nacional 46.56%
Draw 42.04%
Cerro 11.4%

Team To Score First

Nacional 69.57% (-0.40)
No Goal 7.86% (+0.52)
Cerro 22.57% (-0.13)

Corners

Over 8 56.02%
Equal 8 12.26%
Under 8 31.72%
Over 9 43.72%
Equal 9 12.3%
Under 9 43.98%
Over 10.5 32.48%
Under 10.5 67.52%

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 54.63% (-2.15)
Under 1.5 45.37% (+2.15)
Over 2.5 26.99% (-1.91)
Under 2.5 73.01% (+1.92)
Over 3.5 10.54% (-1.12)
Under 3.5 89.46% (+1.11)

Cerro Goals

Over 0.5 45.35% (+1.11)
Under 0.5 54.65% (-1.11)
Over 1.5 13.46% (+0.53)
Under 1.5 86.54% (-0.52)
Over 2.5 2.63% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 97.37% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 0.43% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 99.57% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Nacional 65.56%
Draw 21.48%
Cerro 13.01%
Nacional
1-0 @ 15.17% (+0.26)
2-0 @ 13.4% (-0.24)
2-1 @ 10.5% (-0.06)
3-0 @ 7.74% (-0.49)
3-1 @ 5.73% (-0.25)
3-2 @ 2.49% (-0.06)
Other @ 10.53% (-1.12)
Total : 65.56%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.12% (+0.41)
0-0 @ 7.86% (+0.52)
2-2 @ 3% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 21.48%
Cerro
0-1 @ 5.54% (+0.49)
1-2 @ 3.48% (+0.19)
0-2 @ 1.86% (+0.22)
Other @ 0.42% (+0.04)
Total : 13.01%

Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
Nov 1, 2025 10.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 14
May 3, 2025 9.30pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Gran Parque Central
  • Jeremia Recoba 20' yellowcard
  • Gonzalo Petit Abad 27' goal
  • Eduardo Vargas 48' goal
  • Diego Herazo 80' goal
  • Lucas Morales 82' goal
  • Lucas Martin Villalba Jaume 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mauro Villar 17'
  • yellowcard Carlos Emanuel Cuello Azambuya 51'
  • yellowcard Facundo Silvestre 74'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 10
Nov 2, 2024 10.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Gran Parque Central
  • Alexis Castro 31' yellowcard
  • Antonio Galeano 45'+1' goal
  • Nicolas Lopez 55' goal
  • yellowcard German Triunfo 54'
  • yellowcard Alejo Macelli 84'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 1
Jun 9, 2024 10.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Monumental Luis Troccoli
  • Santiago Ramirez 14' goal
  • Mathias Abero 29' redcard
  • Joshuan Berrios 76' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Petillo Mediza 84' goal
  • Nicolas Gonzalez 88' goal
  • yellowcard Federico Santander 65'
  • yellowcard Juan Izquierdo 67'
  • yellowcard Alexis Castro 69'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 10
Apr 28, 2024 10.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Centenario
  • Mathias Abero 36' yellowcard
  • Alejo Macelli 61' goal
  • Maicol Rodriguez 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Gonzalo Carneiro 40'
  • yellowcard Mateo Antoni 60'
  • goal Christian Oliva 70'
  • yellowcard Christian Oliva 75'
Uruguayan Primera Division Gameweek 5
Oct 15, 2023 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Gran Parque Central
  • Leandro Lozano 10' yellowcard
  • Yonatan Rodriguez 17' goal
  • Federico Martinez 33' yellowcard
  • Emmanuel Gigliotti 70' goal
  • goal Lucas Rodriguez 12'
  • yellowcard Lucas Rodriguez 25'
  • yellowcard Jairo Coronel 31'
  • yellowcard Cristhian Tizon 43'
  • yellowcard Mathias Abero 51'
  • yellowcard Ramiro Fernandez 67'