Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 65.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.47% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 13.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%) , while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (5.54%).