Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 46.82%. A draw had a probability of 30.98% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.71%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.84%) , while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood.