Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.82% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.83%) , while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (9.94%).