Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.62%. A draw had a probability of 28.44% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 26.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.14%) , while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.