Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 44.68%. A draw had a probability of 28.18% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 27.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%) , while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 0-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.