Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 35.69%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 31.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (11.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (14.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.