Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 29.06% and a draw had a probability of 26.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (9.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.