Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (10.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.