Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 56.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.39% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 16.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.3%) and 1-2 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.19%) , while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.