Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 52.74%. A draw had a probability of 26.95% and a win for Juventud had a probability of 20.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.99%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%) , while for a Juventud win it was 1-0 (8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.