Feb 21, 2026 11.30pm

0

1

HT : 0 1

FT Parque Abraham Paladino

Nicolás Fernández 46'
Matteo Copelotti 79'
Juan Rivero 85'
Gonzalo Silva 85'
Ignacio Lemmo 90'

Julián Millán 45'+3'
Baltasar Barcia 69'
Nicolás Lodeiro 69'
Nicolás López 83'
Agustín Dos Santos 83'
Gonzalo Carneiro 90'

Progreso vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Progreso

All competitions

L
L
L
D
L
L

Uruguayan Primera Division

L
L
D
L
L
L

Last game

Feb 14, 2026 8.00pm

Maldonado 2 - 0 Progreso

Nacional

All competitions

D
W
W
W
W
D

Uruguayan Primera Division

D
W
W
D
D
D

Last game

Feb 14, 2026 11.30pm

Nacional 1 - 1 Racing

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 66.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 13.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.65%) and 1-2 (10.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%) , while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood.

Result

Progreso 13.24% ▼ (-0.29)

Draw 20.5% ▼ (-0.18)

Nacional 66.2% ▲ (+0.41)

Both Teams to Score:

43.5% ▼ (-0.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.72% ▲ (+0.04)

Under 1.5 27.28% ▼ (-0.03)

Over 2.5 48.81% ▲ (+0.11)

Under 2.5 51.19% ▼ (-0.11)

Over 3.5 26.04% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 3.5 73.96% ▲ (+0.02)

Over 4.5 16.29% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 4.5 83.71% ▼ (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Progreso 15.82% ▲ (+0.01)

Draw 37.76%

Nacional 46.42% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Progreso 24.27% ▼ (-0.13)

No Goal 7.77% ▼ (-0.12)

Nacional 67.96% ▲ (+0.23)

Corners

Over 8 49.98% ▲ (+0.08)

Equal 8 12.1% ▲ (+0.09)

Under 8 37.92% ▼ (-0.18)

Over 9 38.38% ▼ (-0.01)

Equal 9 11.6% ▲ (+0.09)

Under 9 50.02% ▼ (-0.08)

Over 10.5 28.16% ▼ (-0.09)

Under 10.5 71.84% ▲ (+0.10)

Progreso Goals

Over 1.5 13.84% ▼ (-0.30)

Under 1.5 86.16% ▲ (+0.29)

Over 2.5 2.7% ▼ (-0.12)

Under 2.5 97.3% ▲ (+0.12)

Over 3.5 0.45% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 3.5 99.55% ▲ (+0.04)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 83.89% ▲ (+0.19)

Under 0.5 16.11% ▼ (-0.20)

Over 1.5 56.11% ▲ (+0.22)

Under 1.5 43.89% ▼ (-0.22)

Over 2.5 29.64% ▲ (+0.32)

Under 2.5 70.36% ▼ (-0.32)

Over 3.5 12.56% ▲ (+0.22)

Under 3.5 87.44% ▼ (-0.22)

Score analysis

Progreso 13.23%

Draw 20.5%

Nacional 66.2%

Progreso

1-0 @ 5.2% ▼ (-0.10)

2-1 @ 3.63% ▼ (-0.04)

2-0 @ 2.04% ▼ (-0.05)

Other @ 0.44% ▼ (-0.04)

Total : 13.23%

Draw

1-1 @ 9.23% ▼ (-0.05)

0-0 @ 7.77% ▼ (-0.12)

2-2 @ 3.16% ▼ (-0.03)

Other @ 0.01%

Total : 20.5%

Nacional

0-1 @ 14.24% ▲ (+0.13)

0-2 @ 12.65% ▲ (+0.04)

1-2 @ 10.01% ▼ (-0.06)

0-3 @ 8.53% ▲ (+0.15)

1-3 @ 5.91% ▲ (+0.04)

2-3 @ 2.31% ▼ (-0.09)

Other @ 12.55% ▲ (+0.22)

Total : 66.2%

Head to Head

May 24, 2025 12.30am

1

0

HT : 0 0

FT Estadio Gran Parque Central

Lucas Morales 9'
Lucas Morales 9'
Eduardo Vargas 27'
Eduardo Vargas 27'
Diego Romero 41'
Diego Romero 41'
Gianfranco Trasante 71'
Gianfranco Trasante 71'
Christian Oliva 90'
Christian Oliva 90'

Agustin Nahuel Moreira Morales 41'
Agustin Nahuel Moreira Morales 41'
Nicolas Olivera 81'
Nicolas Olivera 81'
Alejandro Garcia 82'
Alejandro Garcia 82'

Feb 16, 2025 8.00pm

1

5

HT : 0 6

FT Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Gonzalo Jorge Alberto Silva 25'
Carlos Alberto Ordonez Esterilla 47'
Nicolas Fernandez 52'
Nicolas Fernandez 52'
Adrian Colombino 53'
Facundo Silvera 55'
Nicolas Gonzalez 67'
Agustin Pinheiro Goggia 81'

Jeremia Recoba 11'
Jeremia Recoba 11'
Diego Herazo 17'
Diego Herazo 17'
Nicolas Lopez 36'
Nicolas Lopez 36'
Julian Millan 41'
Nicolas Lopez 49'
Christian Oliva 55'
Nicolas Lopez 63'
Nicolas Lopez 63'
Bruno Gustavo Arady Mata 84'
Bruno Gustavo Arady Mata 84'

Sep 30, 2024 12.00am

0

3

HT : 0 2

FT Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Gustavo Alles 18'
Gustavo Alles 18'
Danilo Asconeguy 33'
Danilo Asconeguy 33'
Jorge Gonzalez 60'
Jorge Gonzalez 60'
Ignacio Lemmo 78'
Ignacio Lemmo 78'
Gonzalo Castillo 81'
Gonzalo Castillo 81'

Alexis Castro 12'
Alexis Castro 12'
Ruben Bentancourt 13'
Ruben Bentancourt 13'
Sebastian Coates 45'+2'
Sebastian Coates 45'+2'
Exequiel Mereles de la Quintana 60'
Exequiel Mereles de la Quintana 60'
Jeremia Recoba 66'
Jeremia Recoba 66'

Mar 23, 2024 9.30pm

0

0

HT : 0 8

FT Estadio Gran Parque Central

Erik De Los Santos 19'
Erik De Los Santos 19'
Erik De Los Santos 19'
Jose Varela 63'
Jose Varela 63'
Jose Varela 63'
Tomas Veron 72'
Tomas Veron 72'
Tomas Veron 72'
Tomas Veron 72'
Diego Zabala 72'
Juan Rivero 83'
Juan Rivero 83'
Juan Rivero 83'
Federico Santander 89'
Tomas Veron 90'+1'
Tomas Veron 90'+1'
Tomas Veron 90'+1'
Lucas Monzon 90'+6'
Lucas Monzon 90'+6'
Lucas Monzon 90'+6'
Diego Polenta 90'+7'

Maximiliano Viera 18'
Leonardo Sequeira 20'
Leonardo Sequeira 20'
Leonardo Sequeira 20'
Leonardo Sequeira 20'
Martin Marta 31'
Camilo Mayada 35'
Camilo Mayada 35'
Camilo Mayada 35'
Leonardo Sequeira 40'
Leonardo Sequeira 40'
Leonardo Sequeira 40'
Leonardo Sequeira 40'
Gaston Colman 60'
Leonardo Sequeira 66'
Leonardo Sequeira 66'
Leonardo Sequeira 66'
Eduardo Darias 70'
Eduardo Darias 70'
Eduardo Darias 70'
Ignacio Lemmo 87'
Alex Silva 89'

Sep 19, 2021 7.30pm

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT Estadio Gran Parque Central

Diego Rodriguez 52'
Brian Ocampo 60'
Diego Polenta 89'
Leandro Fernandez 90'+4'

Luciano Olaizola 4'
Danilo Asconeguy 45'
Gaston Colman 57'
Gonzalo Andrada 64'
Joaquin Gottesman 90'+4'

May 23, 2021 7.00pm

1

3

HT : 0 2

FT Parque Abraham Paladino

Jonathan Ramis 21'
Gustavo Alles 33'
Danilo Asconeguy 43'
Fabricio Fernandez 59'
Rodrigo Rojo 68'
Christian Paiva 87'

Gonzalo Bergessio 33'
Gonzalo Bergessio 37'
Leandro Fernandez 41'
Camilo Candido 51'
Brian Ocampo 60'
Guzman Corujo 74'
Rafael Garcia 83'
Alfonso Trezza 87'

Form Data

Maldonado 2 - 0 Progreso

Progreso 0 - 3 Central Español

Progreso 1 - 2 Tucuman

Juventud 1 - 1 Progreso

Progreso 0 - 5 Torque

Liverpool 3 - 1 Progreso

Nacional 1 - 1 Racing

Boston River 1 - 2 Nacional

Nacional 1 - 0 Concepcion

Nacional 1 - 0 Concepcion

Nacional 1 - 0 Penarol

Penarol 2 - 2 Nacional