Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.