Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Tucuman win with a probability of 49.11%. A draw had a probability of 28.22% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 22.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.46%) and 1-2 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%) , while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.